Your assessment of the possibility of a Trump second term is presented well. Certainly it is a call for Democrats to square up to the challenge ahead. Trump is a formidable opponent whose skills should not be underrated (nothing to do with luck as you suggest — more chance and opportunity). Also, additional advantages to Trump should not be forgotten. He is an incumbent president and has oversized coffers for a plaster of derogatory advertisements.
Democrats have to choose a GREAT candidate. They have done well to turnout lots of runners with talent and ultimately the nomination process will distinguish one person.
Who is a GREAT candidate? Foremost, they have to be likable — to look appealing and sexy. Justin Trudeau, Cristina Fernandez, Emmanuel Macron make the picture along with Obama, Tony Blair and Lord Byron from previous years. Looks don’t do it all though. Don’t be a lousy speaker — look at duds in history such as Jeb Bush, Michael Dukakis and Warren Christopher. Speaking is probably the most powerful attribute a candidate can have — to deliver a message with command and sensitivity that you in the audience can understand and relate to. That couples with the ability to listen. Bill Clinton and Barrack Obama were capable at both. Churchill was a master — along with Cicero.
Who are the good looking and stand-out speakers in this race? Taking from the top of the current national polls —
Joe Biden looks old, is old and cannot complete a paragraph without his signiture fumbles. Bernie Sanders looks old but screams his message clear and connects with those he wants to. Elizabeth Warren looks teacher-like and has more that a touch of grandma (and recently missed an opportunity to up her wardrobe to match her changed plans). She is considerably better at speaking than listening. Pete Buttigieg looks both young and strong— like a plant with good top and roots that you are placing in the ground with confidence to grow tall and produce fruit. He also can deliver speeches — and these will just get better. Andrew Yang looks blown up like a Thanksgiving day balloon and his head doesn’t move — endearing to his followers, maybe. Speaks a monotone. Kamala Harris could look sexy, but choses not to be — hair is always indecisive and her suits deliver Suze Orman appeal (she has a gift for colorful pretty dresses, but alas). Her speeches are routinely unprepared — could be good with work.
Then there is content of course!
