Mitchell,
My feeling is it would make an enormous difference depending upon who is competing. There may be a "cleansing" effect from the past if two fresh people are there instead of Biden and Trump which would amount to a rerun of all the old stuff.
Who knows at this point who the pair would be -- although, I can see Buttigieg and DeSantis in the roles.
More generally, although the U.S. is clearly divided, that is likely exaggerated. The extreme voices from left and right tend to be the ones heard. When is comes to voting, the middle is way more prominent than often realized. The NYC race for Mayor demonstrated this.
Many thanks. Always fun.