Kenny Oladipo, a credible analysis. Excellent.
The problem is that it's not Russia's war; it's Putin's. And he is unlikely to admit weakness or defeat.
You are accurate in that a tidy conclusion to the war, either by Ukraine quickly ousting Putin from all of its territory or by Putin withdrawing now, would make Russia more robust to handle what comes after. It would have to deal with a transition of power, and individual Russian states could decide to go it alone.
I invite you to read "Time for America and NATO to Act?"
Many thanks.