Dean,
Trump’s convictions may cost him swing voters. It's unpredictable. Normandy has perhaps elevated President Biden as a ceremonial world figure.
Democrats could use these straws of confidence to take a bold measure to enhance their position and not rely on Trump's behavior to lose. The sit-and-hope position is comfortable but dangerous.
Short of replacing Biden at an open convention, which is tricky and uncertain, another measure, still bold but without the potential to go awry, should be taken.
Immediately replace Kamala Harris as VP Nominee. Democrats need an engine to push/pull Biden successfully across the finish line in November. And Harris is a passenger who occupies a vital seat woefully underutilized. The most obvious talent for the role is Buttigieg.
The voices against will be shrill but unlikely weighty. Harris has no special hold on Black or ProChoice voters. That voters would reject a gay VP is a popular response of liberals but Buttigieg proved the issue made little difference in Iowa and New Hampshire for the 2020 primary. Those not voting for a gay VP would likely not vote for a woman or Black VP.
Many thanks. Best.