Daniel G. Jennings,

The reasons for the decline of empires likely accumulate over time, and an event triggers a collapse (like your war example and the bankruptcy of Louis XVI France). Gross mismanagement and cronyism are helpful agents.

An ingredient of downfalls can be protectionism and ethnic and religious cleansing, where clansman-ship is rewarded more than ability. And ideology over the pragmatic.

The Ottoman Empire collapsed when it moved from outward-looking and inclusive to protective. They lost the talented folk running the show.

China has taken a protectionist and authoritarian turn in the last decade, and its leadership stubbornly remains on this dangerous course. China's most recent troubles are self-inflicted.

America has its share of self-inflictions as it's on a protectionist course, which won't make Americans safer or richer. But there is flexibility to counter these forces. For example, Chinese goods subject to restrictions and tariffs are channeled through third countries -- costing more.

Some of my essays lean into history, such as "America Must U-Turn and Avoid a Collision with China."

Many thanks.